Academics seem to find a new cause for a global apocalypse each week, so in hindsight it was probably no surprise, with the constant spectre of catastrophic climate change, the threat of peak oil would arrive almost unnoticed.
Of course the threat that we would run out of oil has been around since M. King Hubbert produced his bell shaped curve for oil production in 1956. Since the oil shocks of the 1970s it has been a constant reality that at some time we will run out of oil.
Peak oil could turn out be the silver bullet for climate change, it may be the ‘rock bottom’ that will force us off our addiction to fossil fuels and lead to a reduction in carbon emissions.
It’s now that theory and prediction has turned into reality. Its clear that oil prices will only get higher. Dubai is building everything from a cricket pitch in the desert to a 6 star hotel. The Emirates saw the need for a different economy when it was clear their oil wasn’t going to last forever. Today only 6% of Dubai's GDP comes from fossil fuels, according to AMEInfo.
The West should take the Emirates lead and take our economies in a different direction, one not reliant on oil.
During the Oil crisis’ of the 1970s the energy use of many countries was taken in a whole new direction. In the US cars became smaller and more efficient, governments concentrated on coal, nuclear and to some extent ‘green’ power plants. In Australia oil-based heaters were discarded for natural gas and electric heaters.
Its clear that spikes in prices drive consumers in a new direction. Today we are already seeing a growing interest in fuel efficient cars and alternative fuels, so the impetus is there. What we need is strong leadership to take the enthusiasm and run with it.
While Rudd is encouraging the production of Toyota’s hybrids in Australia, Holden muscle cars are getting exported to the US and the only two Hybrid Commodores ever made sit in a museum as a technological oddity.
Both sides of politics should stop focussing on superficial adjustments to petrol prices and looking for an alternative to petrol.
From an environmental perspective the tragedy is that coal will hit its peak in 2150, long after the predicted point of no return for climate change.
We should be taking the Emirate’s lead and using our resources boom to diversify our oil based economy to something much more sustainable.
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